MY HOT TAKE: If you talk of a ‘new normal’, you are an ultracrepidarian.

 

Do not purport to know what ‘new normal’ is, normality never existed.

There is a great deal of ‘light touch’ business advice floating around at the moment.  You need to consider the validity of the 19th century word ‘ultracrepidarian’ when ‘experts’ speak.

An ultracrepidarian is someone who holds court on matters they know absolutely nothing about and let’s face it, there are many out there.

When people talk about a “new normal’ they only serve to demonstrate a lack of understanding of how economies and business cycles function. What are they really referring to – stability or a sense of calm returning? Wanting to feel comfortable with what’s happening right now?

The business world is inherently abnormal in its function and activity due to one factor: – the chaos arising from opportunism.

Often referred to as ‘entrepreneurialism’, ‘disruption’ or ‘capitalism’, opportunism is where improvements in a sector, or business model are exploited by businesses who see a way to do something in a more efficient, attractive, cheaper or greener way than their competitors.

In the most stable and calm economies there is continual disruption and improvement. The smaller margins force innovation and drive change. Bigger change is more easily spotted and exploited during and following periods of economic disruption, Amazon is a good example here. Every recession or economic disruption has seen a leap forward in business practices and operational efficiencies as the chaos forces businesses to embrace those efficiencies and improvements. The weak or poor business models disintegrate, creating space for better positioned, more relevant companies to arrive. For example, just take a look at the ‘high street’ retail sector.

In every business sector there are businesswomen and men who see and then exploit opportunity where others do not. They are the ‘abnormal’, the pioneers, `the opportunists! On the other hand, the ‘normal’ are those waiting for opportunity to lay itself at their feet, ignorant of the many moments when opportunity has revealed itself.

The stability of normality is a myth. You either chase opportunity or you follow others who see it first, thus becoming one who crowds the market, triggering further change due to market saturation.

The invisible hand, Adam Smith called it!

Ignore those who speak of new normal arriving as they simply do not have the wherewithal to form a coherent opinion. Embrace the considerable opportunity that exists with the economic turbulence caused right now by factors such as Brexit and Covid-19.